Super Typhoon Bavi Forecast: Taiwan, the Ryukyu Islands and China Face the Next Dangerous Strike
Super Typhoon Bavi has already become one of the most violent storms of the 2026 western Pacific season. After striking the Mariana Islands as a Category 5 system and exposing Rota to catastrophic winds, Bavi is now moving into its next high-impact phase. The storm is forecast to pass near Japan’s southern Ryukyu Islands, sweep close to northern Taiwan, and then move toward China’s Fujian-Zhejiang coast with destructive winds, storm surge, giant waves and exceptional rainfall.
Current status: Bavi has weakened from peak Category 5 intensity but remains a large and dangerous typhoon. Taiwan’s CWA reported sustained winds near 184 km/h, a storm radius around 380 km and the strongest Taiwan impact from Friday night through Saturday.
Highest-impact window: July 10–12 is the critical period for the Sakishima/Ryukyu Islands, northern and eastern Taiwan, and then the Fujian-Zhejiang coast of China.
Main Taiwan threat: not only wind. Northern Taiwan’s mountains may receive 600–900 mm of rain, with some model guidance near 1000 mm. Dangerous waves above 6 m and storm surge are major coastal hazards.
China risk: landfall is most likely late Saturday into Sunday somewhere along the Fujian-Zhejiang coast, with inland rain spreading into Zhejiang, Fujian, Hubei, Anhui, Henan and Shandong through July 15.
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What happened: Bavi exploded into a Category 5 storm near the Mariana Islands
Bavi’s first major land impact came across the Mariana Islands. The storm crossed the region as a Category 5 super typhoon, lashing Guam, Tinian, Saipan and especially Rota. Reuters reported that Rota was exposed to “catastrophically destructive” winds near 180 mph, or about 290 km/h, with gusts up to 215 mph, or roughly 346 km/h. Rainfall of 12–20 inches, or 30–51 cm, was possible near the core, raising flash-flood concerns.
This matters for the next forecast because Bavi did not simply pass through as a compact cyclone. It became a very large, intense storm with a broad wind field and a long-lived inner core. Even after weakening from its absolute peak, its size means that regions outside the eye can still experience destructive impacts.
The next threat: Bavi is no longer just a point on the map
One of the biggest mistakes during storms like Bavi is focusing only on the forecast track line. The center may pass north of Taiwan, or near the Sakishima Islands, or just offshore before China landfall — but the dangerous weather covers a much wider area than the eye.
Reuters reports that Bavi spans roughly 1,000 km at its widest point — about the width of France. Taiwan’s CWA reported a storm radius of around 380 km. This means strong winds, high waves and heavy rain can extend far from the exact center. A small north-south track shift could drastically change who receives the eyewall, the heaviest rain bands or the worst coastal surge.
Forecast timeline: July 9–15
Period
Most exposed areas
Expected impact
Confidence
July 9, Thursday
Philippine Sea, waters east of Taiwan, southern Ryukyus
Bavi turns northwest, still a large and dangerous typhoon. Seas deteriorate. Taiwan issues sea warnings and prepares land warnings.
Likely China landfall window. Destructive winds, storm surge, coastal flooding and heavy rain. Landfall point remains track-sensitive.
High impact
July 12–15
Zhejiang, Fujian, Hubei, Anhui, Henan, Shandong, parts of central and eastern China
Weakening inland system, but rain threat spreads. 300–500 mm possible in some areas. Flooding and landslides remain serious.
Moderate to high
Taiwan: the most dangerous threat is extreme rain, not only wind
Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration expects Bavi’s greatest impact from Friday night through Saturday. As of Thursday evening, Bavi was still a very large and dangerous typhoon, with sustained winds near 184 km/h and a storm radius around 380 km.
The rainfall signal is extreme. CWA forecasts suggest 600–900 mm of rain in mountainous areas of New Taipei, Taoyuan, Hsinchu County and Miaoli County from Thursday through Sunday. New Taipei’s low-lying areas could receive 500–700 mm, while Hsinchu and Miaoli counties may receive 400–600 mm. Severe Weather Europe also highlights the possibility of extreme rainfall approaching 1000 mm over Taiwan’s terrain.
That terrain is the multiplier. Moist typhoon air slams into mountains, rises fast, cools and condenses into long-duration rain bands. Even if the eyewall stays offshore or north of the island, Taiwan’s mountains can still produce catastrophic runoff, flash floods, landslides and dangerous river rises.
Taiwan locations to watch closely
Northern Taiwan
Taipei, New Taipei, Keelung, Taoyuan, Hsinchu and Miaoli face the highest combined risk from torrential rain, gusty winds, flooding and transport disruption.
East and northeast coast
Yilan, Hualien mountains, Suao, Orchid Island and Green Island are exposed to high waves, coastal flooding, dangerous surf and strong wind gusts.
Central mountains
Nantou, Taichung mountain areas and Hualien’s mountainous terrain could see heavy rain and landslide risk even if the center passes north of Taiwan.
Coastal warnings are especially important. Taiwan issued its first “mega wave” warning under its new alert system, with waves exceeding 6 m expected in parts of Pingtung, Yilan, Hualien and Taitung. Waves as high as 7 m were already observed off Taitung and Orchid Island by Thursday evening.
Japan: Sakishima and southern Ryukyu Islands face violent winds and storm surge
Japan’s southern island chain is in the direct risk corridor before Taiwan and China. Weathernews projects Bavi to pass near the Sakishima Islands early on July 11 as a very intense typhoon, with heavy rain, violent winds, high waves and storm surge possible. Japan’s meteorological agency has urged residents in affected areas to prepare early and remain on high alert for strong winds, high waves and heavy rain.
The highest-risk islands include Ishigaki, Miyakojima, Yonaguni, Iriomote and the wider Yaeyama/Miyako island groups. Okinawa Prefecture, including the wider air and ferry network around Naha, should expect travel disruption even where the core remains south or west of the main island.
China: Fujian and Zhejiang are the main landfall corridor
The landfall corridor is now focused on the eastern China coast, especially Fujian and Zhejiang. Reuters reports that China’s National Meteorological Centre forecast Bavi to skirt northern Taiwan before making landfall in Fujian on Saturday evening. China Daily gives a slightly broader Saturday evening to Sunday window along the coasts of Zhejiang and Fujian.
That broader corridor matters. If Bavi tracks farther south, Fujian cities such as Fuzhou, Ningde, Putian, Quanzhou and Xiamen face the highest direct wind and surge risk. If the center tracks farther north, Zhejiang cities including Wenzhou, Taizhou and Ningbo become more exposed.
After landfall, Bavi should weaken, but the rain threat will not end quickly. Chinese meteorologists expect heavy rain from Thursday through July 15 across eastern, central and northern China. Some areas in Guangxi, Hubei, Zhejiang and Fujian could receive 300–500 mm, and post-landfall rainfall may extend inland toward Hubei, Anhui, Henan and Shandong.
Why Bavi is so dangerous even if it weakens
A weakening typhoon can still be deadly. Bavi is large, moisture-loaded and moving toward densely populated coastal and mountain regions. Once a storm this large begins interacting with terrain, the wind number alone stops being the whole story.
Large wind field: tropical-storm and typhoon-force winds can cover a broad area even if the eye misses a city.
Extreme rain: Taiwan’s mountains may force rainfall toward 600–900 mm, locally near 1000 mm in the worst terrain-enhanced bands.
Storm surge and waves: waves above 6 m and coastal flooding can occur well before the center arrives.
Track sensitivity: a small shift north or south can move the eyewall, surge zone and heaviest rain into different counties or cities.
China’s saturated ground: southern and central China are still dealing with flooding from Maysak, which increases vulnerability to more rain.
Humanitarian and infrastructure risk
GDACS classifies Bavi as a high-humanitarian-impact tropical cyclone based on its wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability. The system’s exposure zone includes Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan and China, with tens of millions potentially exposed to Category 1 strength or stronger conditions along the full track.
In Taiwan, nearly 29,000 soldiers have been placed on standby, fishermen have crowded harbours such as Suao, and airlines have already begun cancelling flights. Taoyuan International Airport reported Saturday departure cancellations by Taiwanese airlines as the storm approaches. In Japan, carriers including Japan Airlines and All Nippon Airways have cancelled flights, with further disruption likely around the Ryukyu corridor.
In China, the timing is especially dangerous because southern China is still recovering from Typhoon Maysak. AP reports 39 deaths from flooding in southern China, with more rain expected in some areas. A second high-impact typhoon arriving before recovery is complete increases the risk of cascading damage.
Forecast confidence: what is clear and what can still change
Forecast element
Confidence
Reason
Major Taiwan impacts Friday night through Saturday
High
CWA, Reuters and model guidance agree on a close approach and very large wind/rain field.
Extreme rain in northern Taiwan mountains
High
CWA forecasts 600–900 mm; terrain and deep tropical moisture support extreme totals.
Severe impacts for Sakishima/Ryukyu Islands
High
Japanese guidance points to violent winds, high waves, heavy rain and storm surge around July 11.
China landfall along Fujian/Zhejiang
Medium-high
Track guidance clusters toward that coast, but exact landfall point remains sensitive to small shifts.
Exact wind intensity at Taiwan and China landfall
Medium
Eyewall replacement cycles, wind shear and sea-surface temperatures can change intensity quickly.
Inland China rainfall maximum
Medium
Rainfall will depend on Bavi’s post-landfall track and interaction with monsoon moisture and terrain.
Most exposed locations by region
Region
Locations to watch
Main threat
Already hit: Mariana Islands
Rota, Guam, Saipan, Tinian
Damage assessment, power disruption, flooded roads, dangerous surf and recovery hazards
Prolonged heavy rain, flash floods, landslides, river flooding
Use Weather Forecaster before the storm arrives
Track changes in wind, rain, pressure and local warnings hour by hour. Typhoon forecasts can shift quickly, and the most dangerous impacts may happen far from the exact center line. Use Weather Forecaster before travel, port activity, coastal visits or mountain routes.
Stay away from coastlines. Do not go to beaches, seawalls, river mouths or ports during mega-wave and storm-surge warnings.
Move vehicles and boats early. Harbours, low-lying lots and coastal roads may flood before peak winds arrive.
Prepare for power outages. Charge phones, power banks and radios; keep flashlights and batteries ready.
Do not cross flooded roads. Moving water can be deeper and faster than it looks, especially near mountain rivers.
Avoid mountain travel. Northern and eastern Taiwan mountains face landslide and flash-flood risk.
Secure loose objects. Signs, roof materials, balcony items and construction materials can become dangerous projectiles.
Follow official evacuation orders. If local authorities order evacuation, leave before wind and flood conditions become severe.
Check flight and ferry status. Major cancellations are likely around Taiwan, Okinawa/Ryukyu routes and China’s east coast.
Main forecast message
Bavi is no longer only a Mariana Islands disaster story. It is now a Taiwan, Ryukyu Islands and China landfall threat. The storm has weakened from its peak, but its size, rainfall potential and coastal wave field make it extremely dangerous. The greatest concern is the combination of extreme rain over Taiwan’s mountains, dangerous waves around the island, violent winds over the Ryukyus and a likely Fujian-Zhejiang landfall followed by inland flooding.
The forecast should be treated as high-impact and track-sensitive. If Bavi shifts slightly south, Taiwan’s wind and surge risk rises. If it shifts north, the Ryukyu Islands and Zhejiang become more exposed. If it slows near landfall, rainfall totals over Taiwan and eastern China could rise further.
FAQ
Where is Super Typhoon Bavi heading next?
Bavi is forecast to move northwest toward Japan’s Sakishima/Ryukyu Islands, pass near or north of Taiwan from Friday night through Saturday, and then make landfall along China’s Fujian-Zhejiang coast late Saturday into Sunday.
Will Bavi make landfall in Taiwan?
The most likely forecast track keeps Bavi near or north of Taiwan, but Taiwan’s CWA says landfall cannot be completely ruled out because small north-south shifts remain possible as the storm approaches.
How much rain could Taiwan receive?
Taiwan’s CWA forecasts 600–900 mm in northern mountain areas, with 500–700 mm possible in low-lying parts of New Taipei. Severe Weather Europe notes that terrain-enhanced rainfall could locally approach 1000 mm.
Which Taiwan areas are most at risk?
The highest risk includes New Taipei, Taipei, Taoyuan, Hsinchu, Miaoli, Keelung, Yilan, Hualien mountains, Nantou, Orchid Island and Green Island. Coastal zones in Yilan, Hualien, Taitung and Pingtung should also watch dangerous waves.
Which Japanese islands are at risk?
The Sakishima Islands are the main Japanese risk zone, including Ishigaki, Miyakojima, Yonaguni, Iriomote and nearby Yaeyama/Miyako islands. Violent winds, high waves, storm surge and flight disruptions are possible.
Where could Bavi hit China?
The main landfall corridor is Fujian to Zhejiang, including coastal areas near Fuzhou, Ningde, Putian, Quanzhou, Xiamen, Wenzhou, Taizhou and Ningbo. Inland rain may spread into Hubei, Anhui, Henan and Shandong.
Why is Bavi dangerous if it is weakening?
Large typhoons can remain dangerous after weakening because their wind field, rain shield and coastal wave field cover a wide area. Bavi may still cause flooding, landslides, storm surge and destructive gusts far from the eye.
The Founder and Chief Meteorologist at Pogodnik.com. With over 15 years of operational experience in synoptic analysis and climate forecasting, he specializes in storm tracking, magnetic storms, and atmospheric dynamics. A recognized expert in Ukraine’s meteorological sector, he maintains strategic collaborations with global agencies, including NOAA and ECMWF, to ensure high-precision data integration. His analytical reviews and scientific contributions are regularly featured in leading media outlets dedicated to weather science and environmental trends.
