Geomagnetic Forecast for December 2024

Overview of Solar Activity and Geomagnetic Conditions

December 2024 will continue to reflect heightened solar activity, characteristic of the solar maximum phase of Solar Cycle 25. This period is associated with more frequent solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which significantly influence geomagnetic conditions on Earth.

The NOAA 27-day outlook predicts varying geomagnetic activity levels, influenced primarily by solar wind streams emanating from coronal holes and any significant CMEs. The planetary K-index (Kp) and planetary A-index (Ap) indicate moderate to strong geomagnetic disturbances at intervals throughout the month.

Weekly Geomagnetic Conditions and Solar Flare Activity

Week 1 (Dec 1–7):
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain moderate (Kp 3–4) early in the week. A CME from late November may result in a minor geomagnetic storm (G1, Kp 5) by December 3-4. No severe solar flares are anticipated, but watch for R1 (minor) radio blackouts from smaller flares.

Week 2 (Dec 8–14):
Elevated geomagnetic activity is possible as fast solar wind streams from coronal holes interact with Earth’s magnetic field. The Kp index may rise to 5 or 6 during mid-week. Expect potential radio disruptions and satellite drag effects.

Week 3 (Dec 15–21):
Reduced geomagnetic activity (Kp 3) is likely as Earth exits high-speed solar wind streams. However, isolated flares of R2 (moderate) magnitude may occur, increasing the risk of HF radio blackouts in polar regions.

Week 4 (Dec 22–31):
The closing week of December may see renewed geomagnetic disturbances due to a forecasted CME arrival. This could lead to G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm levels (Kp 6). High-energy proton events remain a possibility, which could disrupt satellite operations.

Impacts and Preparedness

Auroras: Increased geomagnetic activity will enhance auroral displays, particularly around December 3-4 and December 28-30.
Communications: HF radio operators should anticipate signal degradation during geomagnetic storms and flare events.
Satellites and Navigation Systems: Satellite operators should monitor for potential disruptions due to increased radiation and drag.
The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center provides real-time updates and detailed reports, essential for mitigating space weather impacts on technology and infrastructure.

For the latest forecasts and real-time updates, visit NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center.