Geomagnetic Forecast for January 2025

January 2025 promises to be relatively calm in terms of geomagnetic activity. Most days will be characterized by a low level of disturbances (Kp=2–3). However, moderate magnetic storms are expected, which is associated with the impact of high-speed solar wind streams from coronal holes.

First half of the month (January 1-15):

Low activity (Kp=2–3): Most days during this period are characterized by a calm geomagnetic environment. Only on January 5 and 10 moderate disturbances are possible (Kp=4).
Weak magnetic storms: Expected on January 6 and 11 and 12 (Kp=5), but they will not reach significant levels.

Second half of the month (January 16–31):

A period of calm: Starting from January 16, geomagnetic activity will again be stable (Kp=2–3).
Magnetic storms: A weak magnetic storm is possible on January 16–18 (Kp=5). The remaining days will remain calm.

Expected solar events in January 2025:

Sunspot activity: New active regions are expected to appear in early January, which may cause weak or moderate flares.
Coronal holes: The influence of high-speed solar wind will continue, especially on January 6–7 and January 16–17.
Possible solar flares: The probability of coronal mass ejections remains low, but M-class flares are possible in the middle of the month.

Interesting events on the Sun and the solar cycle

The Sun is currently at the peak of Solar Cycle 25, which began in December 2019. This period is accompanied by increased activity of sunspots, flares, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). In December 2024, several powerful mid-class (M-class) flares were observed, one of which caused a moderate magnetic storm.

In January 2025, new active regions can be expected on the Sun, increasing the likelihood of flares and coronal mass ejections. Solar wind streams emanating from coronal holes will be the main factor in disturbances of the Earth's magnetosphere.

How are NOAA forecasts made?

NOAA's geomagnetic activity forecasts are based on the following data:

Satellites such as the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and SOHO are used to record active regions, sunspots, and coronal holes.
Data on solar flares (their strength and direction) comes from the GOES satellites.

Solar Wind Propagation Models:

NOAA uses models such as WSA-Enlil to predict the movement of solar wind streams and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the Sun to Earth.

The speed, density, and direction of charged particles are analyzed.

Kp Index:

This is a key indicator of geomagnetic activity, which is calculated based on changes in the Earth's magnetic field. It is updated every 3 hours and is used for short-term forecasts.

Historical data and solar cycle:

Current events are compared with similar periods of previous cycles to predict long-term trends.

Accuracy of magnetic storm forecasts
Short-term forecasts (1–3 days) are highly accurate, as they are based on real data on solar wind and flares.
Long-term forecasts (a month or more) are less accurate, as they depend on changes in solar activity, which can be unpredictable.

Thus, January 2025 will be marked by moderate solar activity, with rare flares and small magnetic storms, which is typical for the peak of the solar cycle.