Edouard Flooding: Why Southeast Texas Is Still Under High Risk

The remnants of Edouard are still producing dangerous flooding across southeast Texas, even as the tropical system weakens inland. The Weather Prediction Center has issued a High Risk of excessive rainfall for parts of the Piney Woods and Big Thicket region, where repeated storms are falling on already saturated ground.

This is no longer mainly a wind story.

The center of Edouard is losing its tropical structure, but deep Gulf moisture is still wrapping around the remnant circulation and feeding bands of thunderstorms into eastern Texas. Where those bands repeatedly cross the same communities, another few inches of rain can fall very quickly on ground that can no longer absorb much water.

WPC says some remaining storm clusters are still capable of 2–3 inches of rain per hour, with localized additional totals of 3–5 inches possible through the early morning hours.

For Hardin, Tyler, Polk and nearby counties, that is enough to create new flash flooding even after the worst part of Edouard has technically passed.

High Risk remains in the Big Thicket and Piney Woods

The Weather Prediction Center kept its highest category — High Risk, Level 4 of 4 — over a focused part of southeast Texas through early Thursday morning.

WPC says the High Risk is centered mainly on the Big Thicket and Piney Woods, where the heaviest bands are moving over locations already hit by significant flooding.

The remnants of Edouard are shifting north, but Gulf inflow is still converging into eastern Texas.

The threat does not suddenly end when the High Risk period expires.

For the next forecast period, WPC upgraded parts of eastern Texas to a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall, with another zone of training thunderstorms possible Thursday morning before the remnant circulation weakens further.

By Friday, the broader threat should decrease, although localized flooding may linger along the Gulf Coast and across already saturated areas.

Hardin County flooding: rescues already underway

Hardin County has been among the hardest-hit areas.

Local officials reported at least 14 water rescues as flooding continued, including high-water problems around communities in and near the Big Thicket.

In Saratoga, authorities urged residents not to drive around to look at the flooding as roads filled with water from Edouard’s remnants.

A Flash Flood Emergency was also issued for parts of Tyler and Hardin counties during the peak of the event.

This is why the storm’s weakening wind field does not mean conditions are safe.

Floodwater can remain high for hours or days after the heaviest rain stops.

Tyler County: saturated ground keeps the risk high

Tyler County sits directly inside the Piney Woods rainfall corridor.

Training storms have already produced serious flooding, and even relatively modest additional rainfall can create renewed problems because creeks, drainage systems and soils are saturated.

The Pogodnik forecast now shows much lower daily rainfall totals than what fell during the peak of the storm.

That does not mean the flood threat has disappeared.

The model is forecasting *new* rainfall. It does not reset the landscape after the extraordinary totals already received.

Polk County: disaster declaration after extreme rainfall

Polk County has also been hit hard.

Local reporting indicates that the county declared a disaster after Edouard produced up to roughly 15 inches of rain in parts of the area, flooding roads, bringing down trees and knocking out power to thousands of customers.

That creates a classic post-tropical flood setup:

already saturated soil

• swollen creeks and rivers
• another round of thunderstorms

\= a much higher flash-flood response from rainfall that would normally be less dangerous.

More than 20 inches reported in parts of Southeast Texas

Rainfall totals from the event have been extreme.

Local reports from the Beaumont area indicate that Edouard dumped more than 20 inches of rain in some locations.

At that point, the flood problem becomes much bigger than the tropical cyclone itself.

Water continues to move downstream, rivers keep rising, roads remain submerged and trees can fall even after the strongest wind has ended because the soil around their roots is saturated.

Power outages remain widespread

Edouard also caused major power disruptions.

Entergy Texas said approximately 80,000 customers lost power at the peak of the storm.

By 6 PM Wednesday, crews had restored service to more than half of those customers, but approximately 38,000 customers were still without electricity. Some of the hardest-hit areas were difficult for crews to reach because of flooding and storm damage.

That is particularly important as temperatures rise again after the tropical system departs.

Schools remain affected

Flooding and storm damage are also disrupting schools.

Several Southeast Texas schools announced closures for Thursday following Edouard, while other colleges and districts planned to reopen depending on road and power conditions.

Houston-area districts also made storm-related closure decisions earlier in the event.

Residents should check their local district directly before traveling.

Pogodnik 5-day forecast for the affected Texas counties

The latest Pogodnik forecast model shows the tropical rainfall signal decreasing significantly over the next five days.

But this table must be read in context: these are future rainfall amounts, not storm totals. Many locations have already received extreme rainfall.

5-day rainfall forecast

Source: Pogodnik forecast model, September 3, 2026 run.

This is an important model signal: the widespread tropical deluge is expected to ease.

However, WPC still sees the potential for much higher *localized* totals from narrow training thunderstorm bands than the daily Pogodnik grid shows.

That is why the official flood outlook remains more severe than the city-grid rainfall numbers.

Hardin County 5-day weather

Kountze

The major change after the flood is heat.

By Sunday and Monday, temperatures in Hardin County may climb toward the upper 90s.

For homes that remain without power, that could become a secondary hazard.

Tyler County 5-day weather

Woodville

Saturday stands out as another chance for showers or thunderstorms.

Even a quarter-inch or less can create local drainage problems where floodwater has not fully receded.

Polk County 5-day weather

Livingston

Sunday currently has the highest new rainfall signal in Polk County.

On normal ground, 0.23 inch is minor.

On flooded or saturated ground, runoff can occur much faster.

Liberty County 5-day weather

Liberty

The Pogodnik model signal dries Liberty County quickly after Thursday.

Flooded roads and rivers, however, can remain dangerous long after the rain stops.

Montgomery County 5-day weather

Conroe

Montgomery County may shift from flood preparation to dangerous heat very quickly.

Conroe could approach 100–101°F by Sunday and Monday.

That could become a serious concern if outages persist.

Houston weather: flood risk decreases, heat returns

Houston proper is west of the hardest-hit Big Thicket/Piney Woods flood corridor.

Pogodnik now shows relatively little additional rainfall for the city.

So the Houston weather story changes rapidly.

First: tropical rain and flooding concerns.

Next: humidity and dangerous heat.

Why Pogodnik looks much drier than the official flood warning

This is one of the most important parts of the forecast.

Pogodnik model is showing the average rainfall expected in a model grid cell.

Flood-producing tropical thunderstorms are much smaller.

A narrow rainband can drop 3 inches of rain over one community while the model grid for a town 15 miles away records almost nothing.

WPC is specifically warning about training and backbuilding storms — thunderstorms repeatedly moving across the same corridor.

Early Thursday, WPC says remaining clusters could still produce rainfall rates of 2–3 inches per hour with localized additional totals of 3–5 inches.

That is why the official warning takes priority over a low city-grid rainfall number.

The flood emergency is changing, not disappearing

The worst rainfall rates should gradually become less organized as Edouard loses its circulation.

But three hazards will remain after the tropical system fades:

Floodwater: rivers, creeks and low areas can keep rising after the rain ends.

Damaged infrastructure: roads, power lines, trees and bridges remain vulnerable.

Heat: temperatures surge into the upper 90s and even around 100°F this weekend.

That last point may become especially important for communities without electricity.

Entergy said about 38,000 customers were still without power Wednesday evening, down from roughly 80,000 at the peak of Edouard.

“Turn Around, Don’t Drown”

The safest rule is also the simplest:

Never drive into floodwater.

Water covering a road can hide:

• washed-out pavement;
• missing bridges;
• deep drainage channels;
• strong current;
• debris.

A road that was safe an hour earlier may no longer be passable.

Hardin County officials have already had to rescue people during this flood event.

What happens next

The latest forecast suggests three phases.

Early Thursday: High Risk remains across the hardest-hit Big Thicket/Piney Woods corridor, with localized intense rain still possible.

Later Thursday into early Friday: WPC has a Moderate Risk for parts of eastern Texas as another training-rain corridor may develop before the Edouard circulation weakens further.

Weekend: widespread tropical rainfall fades, but scattered thunderstorms remain possible and dangerous heat builds rapidly.

Edouard is fading, but the disaster is not over.

The wind is no longer the main story.

The main danger is water.

Hardin and Tyler counties have already experienced flash-flood emergencies. Polk County has reported major flooding and widespread storm damage. More than 20 inches of rain has been estimated in parts of Southeast Texas, and tens of thousands of customers have lost power.

The latest Pogodnik forecast shows the widespread tropical rainfall becoming lighter over the next five days.

But that does not mean the landscape has recovered.

Saturated soils, high rivers, flooded roads and another round of training thunderstorms mean even additional localized rainfall can still become dangerous.

And once the rain finally leaves, another hazard arrives quickly:

temperatures near 100°F across parts of Southeast Texas.

Pogodnik

Use Pogodnik to check hourly rain, local weather alerts and radar before driving. During a flash-flood event, always follow official road closures and emergency instructions even if your local forecast shows lighter rain.