Where Europe Will Be Coldest: Arctic Outbreak to Drive Temperatures Down to −20…−25°C Between January 8–13

Based on temperature maps for January 7–13, 2026, the coldest air across Europe will concentrate over Eastern and North-Eastern regions. Poland, the Baltics, Ukraine and parts of Central-Eastern Europe will see widespread severe мороз conditions, with night-time lows dropping to −15…−20°C and locally lower. Snowfall and drifting snow will significantly increase the risk of transport disruption between January 9 and 12.

Timing of the Arctic outbreak

The most intense phase of the Arctic air intrusion is expected between January 9 and January 12, 2026. During this window, a deep reservoir of cold continental air spreads westward and southward behind an active cyclonic system, locking sub-freezing conditions in place across large parts of Europe.

Daytime temperatures will remain below freezing in many regions, while clear ночи and existing snow cover will allow rapid radiational cooling, producing the lowest minimum temperatures of the event.

Coldest cities and expected temperatures

City	Country	Coldest period	Night minimum	Daytime maximum
Warsaw	Poland	9–11 January	−12…−14°C	−6…−8°C
Vilnius	Lithuania	9–12 January	−13…−16°C	−8…−10°C
Riga	Latvia	9–12 January	−12…−15°C	−7…−9°C
Minsk	Belarus	9–12 January	−14…−18°C	−8…−11°C
Kyiv	Ukraine	9–12 January	−10…−14°C	−6…−9°C
Berlin	Germany	9–11 January	−6…−10°C	−3…−5°C
Prague	Czech Republic	9–11 January	−5…−8°C	−2…−4°C
Vienna	Austria	9–11 January	−4…−7°C	−1…−3°C
Stockholm	Sweden	9–12 January	−10…−13°C	−6…−8°C
Helsinki	Finland	9–12 January	−12…−16°C	−8…−10°C

Where snow and blizzards are most likely

Snowfall is expected to be widespread across Poland, the Baltic states, Belarus and northern and central Ukraine from January 8 onward. As Arctic air deepens, snow showers and frontal snowbands will expand southward into Central Europe.

Scandinavia will experience frequent snow showers and drifting snow due to persistent wind. In the Alpine region, snow is expected throughout the period, especially on northern slopes, with accumulating snow at both high and mid elevations.

Major transport corridors at risk of disruption

Region	Main routes at risk	Primary hazards
Poland	A2, A4, S7, S8	Heavy snow, drifting, black ice
Germany (east)	A4, A13	Ice formation, reduced visibility
Czech Republic	D1	Snow-covered carriageways
Slovakia	D1, mountain sections	Snowdrifts, freezing fog
Alpine region	A10, A22, A2 corridors	Heavy snowfall, transport restrictions
Baltic states	Main north–south highways	Persistent frost, compacted snow

Why this cold spell is so intense

The temperature pattern reflects a classic Arctic outbreak scenario driven by a strong meridional flow. Cold polar air is advected southward behind an active cyclonic system moving across Europe around January 8–9. Once in place, the air mass becomes entrenched due to snow cover and weak solar heating, preventing rapid moderation.

This setup allows minimum temperatures to fall well below seasonal norms and keeps daytime values suppressed, increasing stress on infrastructure and transport networks.

Between January 9 and 12, 2026, the coldest conditions in Europe will be found across Eastern and North-Eastern regions, where night-time temperatures will commonly fall to −10…−18°C and locally lower. Snowfall and persistent мороз conditions will elevate the risk of transport disruption on major European corridors, making this one of the most impactful cold spells of the winter so far.

Weather Forecast Europe January 2026