Tropical Storm Eric Threatens Acapulco — Weather Forecast

Today, the synoptic situation off the coast of Mexico in the Pacific Ocean remains extremely tense. Tropical Storm Erik, which formed earlier in the first half of June, continues to move rapidly in a northwesterly direction and is approaching the southern coast of the country, threatening large settlements, including the tourist center of Acapulco.

According to the latest data from the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Mexican weather service Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), weather conditions in the region will deteriorate sharply in the next 24 hours.

As of the morning of June 17, the center of the tropical storm was located approximately 300 kilometers southeast of Puerto Angel and was moving at a speed of about 12 km/h in a northwesterly direction. The maximum sustained wind speed at the epicenter of the storm reached 95 km/h, with gusts up to 110 km/h.

Forecasters note that Erik is showing a tendency to rapidly strengthen, and there is a high probability that by the evening of June 18 it will transform into a full-fledged hurricane of category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and over the next 24 hours it can reach the level of category 2 or even 3. This means the transition to the category of major hurricanes capable of causing large-scale damage.

The storm trajectory forecast indicates that on June 18 during the day, especially in the second half, the center of the storm will approach the coast of the state of Guerrero and by the morning of June 19 it can come ashore in the area between Tecpan de Galeana and Acapulco. Given the coastal topography and high sea surface temperatures (around 29–30°C), these conditions contribute to further strengthening of the cyclone.

The atmospheric pressure in the central part of the storm continues to decrease, and the cyclone structure is becoming more symmetrical — signs of a mature system.

Storm – weather warnings in Mexico

In this regard, various levels of weather alert have been declared along a significant part of the coast. A hurricane warning is in effect from Puerto Angel to Punta Maldonado. Acapulco and surrounding areas are in an active tropical storm watch zone. In addition, in the mountains of southern Mexico, abrupt changes in weather conditions are possible due to the interaction of the storm with the relief.

Such geography often causes catastrophic consequences in the form of landslides, avalanches and mudflows.

According to the forecast, a gradual deterioration in the weather in Acapulco will begin in the morning of June 18. Cloudiness with periodic precipitation is expected in the first half of the day. However, towards midday and in the afternoon, organized thunderstorm fronts will begin to form, accompanied by strong winds and heavy showers.

The maximum temperature on this day will not exceed 28-29°C, but humidity and squall gusts of wind will create a feeling of a heavy, stuffy atmosphere. Local authorities warn of the possibility of sudden power outages, disruptions in transport communications and temporary suspension of public institutions.

On the evening of June 18 and on the night of June 19, the center of the storm is expected to pass near the city, or directly above it. This will be the most dangerous stage. At this time, forecasters predict a steady wind with a speed of 90-120 km / h, with gusts of up to 140 km / h, as well as heavy rains with precipitation accumulation of up to 150-200 mm during the night.

The likelihood of flooding in coastal areas is extremely high. In addition, sea levels are expected to rise and storm surges of 1.5–2 meters are possible, which could lead to flooding of low-lying areas of Acapulco, especially in the areas of the waterfront and the old port.

Forecasters also warn that there is a high probability of tornadoes and whirlwinds in the coastal zone, especially in places where moist sea air collides with dry continental air. In such conditions, short-term but destructive vortices are possible, capable of damaging infrastructure and posing a threat to life.

After the center of the cyclone passes, weather conditions will gradually begin to improve, but the consequences of the elements will be felt for several more days. On June 19 and 20, there is still a possibility of local showers and thunderstorms, the wind will gradually die down, but the water level in the rivers and on the streets will remain elevated, and the soil will be waterlogged, which will increase the risk of repeated landslides. The temperature on these days will be within 26–30 °C with a relative humidity of up to 90%.

City and regional civil defense services strongly recommend that residents and tourists stay in shelters, do not leave buildings unless necessary, and closely monitor official messages from meteorological and rescue services.

In many areas located on slopes and near rivers, evacuations are already underway, especially from poorly maintained homes and buildings susceptible to flooding.

Tourists in Acapulco are strongly advised not to leave their hotels or go near the beaches, as waves can reach dangerous heights, and strong currents will complicate rescue operations in the event of incidents. All maritime transport, including fishing boats, catamarans and tourist yachts, has been temporarily suspended. The airport in Acapulco is preparing for a possible closure, depending on the development of the situation and weather conditions on the evening of June 18.

Thus, tropical storm Erik poses a serious threat to the southern coast of Mexico and especially to Acapulco. Despite the fact that the cyclone has not yet reached the hurricane stage, its dynamics and forecasts for intensification require maximum preparedness from local authorities, rescue services and the population. The coming days will be critical for the region, and the degree of preparation will determine how successfully it will be possible to minimize the consequences of the approaching elements.

Experts urge everyone to remain calm, not to panic, and to act in strict accordance with the instructions of civil defense services. Only coordinated actions will allow us to effectively counter the powerful natural threat that tropical storm Eric brings with it.