Blazing Fronts Ahead: Central, Southeast & Southwest U.S. Brace for Two Weeks of Scorching Heat
From July 20 through August 1, 2025, a severe and prolonged heat wave is expected to grip much of the central and southeastern United States. NOAA‘s Climate Prediction Center has issued a high-confidence extreme heat outlook, warning of daily heat index values topping 38 °C (100 °F) and minimal overnight reprieve.
🔥 Building the Heat Dome
A powerful mid-level ridge is currently forming over the southeastern U.S. By late weekend, it will reach deep into the central plains, locking in oppressive temperatures. This “heat dome” supports extended periods of extreme heat, stretching from the Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley to the Appalachians, Midwest, and even parts of the Southwest—and it shows little sign of moving anytime soon.
🌡️ Southeast Suffocates First
Beginning July 20–21, the Southeast will bear the brunt of this surge. Days will sizzle near 38 °C (100 °F), but the combinations of high dewpoints and warm nights — with lows around 26 °C (79 °F) — will push heat index values over 43 °C (110 °F) in some areas. In humid regions, this extended day-and-night heat stress seriously threatens vulnerable populations, elderly individuals, outdoor workers, and those without air conditioning.
🌾 Mid-South and Central U.S. to Hit Next
By midweek (July 22–24), the extreme heat will surge northward and westward, enveloping the Mid-South, Mid-Mississippi, and lower Ohio valleys. NOAA models indicate a 60% or greater chance of record-level heat during July 26–28 across the Southern and Central Plains and Mississippi Valley. A broader moderate-risk zone extends from the High Plains to the Appalachians through early August.
🌦️ Heat, Drought & Isolated Storms
Under the same ridge, parts of the central Gulf Coast may experience heavy rainfall from July 25–26, triggered by surface lows over the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, scattered thunderstorms are likely along the northern edge of the high-pressure system, affecting the Northern Plains and Great Lakes between July 26–29—though these won’t offer widespread heat relief.
Meanwhile, California’s southern coastal regions face strong winds this week due to tight pressure gradients. In the southwest, parched soils combined with soaring heat set the stage for rapid drought intensification in states like Kansas. Eastern regions, especially the Tennessee Valley, could see daytime temps near all-time highs and unparalleled overnight warmth.
🏜️ A Dangerous Repeat — Worse Than Late June
This upcoming heat wave follows a late-June event that baked more than 100 million Americans and shattered multiple heat records. But this time, the threat is greater: more widespread, deeper into the interior, and coupled with dry soils primed for heat buildup and drought. Nighttime lows will remain elevated across the eastern U.S., increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses.
⚠️ Impacts & Preparedness Advice
Residents should prepare for long stretches of oppressive weather. Here’s what to expect and how to stay safe:
- Heat index values regularly exceeding 100 °F with limited night cooling
- Increased risk for heatstroke, dehydration, and exacerbated conditions like cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses
- Elevated energy usage and potential strain on power grids
- Accelerating drought development in areas with dry soils
- Hot—and sometimes stormy—nights in humid regions
Stay safe tips: Drink plenty of water, avoid direct sun during peak heating hours, check on vulnerable family members, use cooling centers if available, and conserve energy where possible.
✅ In Summary
A multi-week heat emergency is set to unfold from late July into early August. Driven by a persistent heat ridge anchored over the Southeast and stretching westward, this extreme heat event threatens lives, energy infrastructure, agriculture, and environmental resilience. With limited overnight cooling, the burden of this intense and unprecedented heat wave will be felt deeply across the central and eastern U.S.
Stay tuned to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, local National Weather Service offices, and emergency management agencies for real-time updates, and take action now to mitigate heat-related risks.
Gleb Perov is the founder and chief meteorologist of POGODNIK, a leading weather forecasting service in Eastern Europe. With over 15 years of hands-on experience in meteorology and climate analysis, he has worked private weather services.
Gleb is the author of numerous scientific and analytical publications on climate, magnetic storms, and atmospheric processes. He regularly collaborates with major international agencies such as NOAA, ECMWF.
