Southern U.S. – Flash Floods and Severe Weather – Storm Parade Targets U.S.
A series of powerful storm systems is gearing up to pummel the Southern Plains with days of severe weather, torrential rainfall, and potentially life-threatening flooding. If you live in Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, or the surrounding regions, now is the time to pay close attention to weather alerts. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected to hammer the region through Friday, June 13, creating a dangerous setup with flash flooding, damaging winds, and even large hail.
According to the U.S. Weather Prediction Center (WPC), a Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall is in place for east-central Texas, where forecast models show a high probability of widespread 50–100 mm (2–4 inches) of rain. In areas where storm cells overlap, isolated pockets could see as much as 150 mm (6 inches) — an amount more than enough to flood roads and overwhelm drainage systems.
Southern U.S. : What’s Driving This Dangerous Pattern?
Meteorologically, this outbreak of severe weather is being driven by a persistent moist low-level jet stream, which is funneling warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico straight into the Southern Plains. As this stream of tropical moisture collides with existing outflow boundaries from earlier storms, it sets the stage for explosive thunderstorm development. These storms aren’t just brief summertime pop-ups — they’re organized systems capable of regenerating over the same areas repeatedly.
This setup is particularly dangerous because the atmosphere is primed for training storms — when multiple storm cells form along the same line and move over the same region like train cars on a track. This phenomenon drastically increases the rainfall totals in localized areas and makes flash flooding far more likely.
Who’s at Risk?
East-Central Texas is in the bullseye, particularly between Austin, College Station, and the northern suburbs of Houston. Rainfall totals in these areas are expected to be highest.
The ArkLaTex region — where Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas meet — will also experience prolonged periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms.
Western Louisiana, including Shreveport and surrounding parishes, can expect significant downpours and a heightened risk for severe storms.
Flash flood advisories are already active for multiple counties across south-central Texas, including the San Antonio metro area, where 40–75 mm (1.5–3 inches) of rain is expected through Thursday.
Urban areas and regions with clay-rich, saturated soils are especially vulnerable to rapid flooding.
More Than Just Rain: Severe Weather Threats Loom
While the rain and flooding are the primary concern, severe thunderstorms are also on the radar — literally. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for southeastern Texas for Wednesday.
That may not sound alarming, but when paired with high CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) values, it means the atmosphere is ripe for strong storms capable of:
Damaging wind gusts
Large hail
Frequent lightning
Isolated tornadoes (low but not zero risk)
Evening hours are expected to be the most volatile as daytime heating increases atmospheric instability.
Rainfall Totals and Flood Potential
As of early Wednesday morning (07:50 UTC, June 11), satellite and radar imagery already showed widespread precipitation spreading across central and eastern Texas. Over the next 48 hours, models indicate a high probability of persistent rainfall over a large area. The National Weather Service warns that localized flooding will be especially problematic in low-lying areas, near rivers and streams, and in places where urban infrastructure can’t handle the runoff.
Flooding risks will be exacerbated by previous rain that has already soaked the ground. With the soil’s saturation point already reached in some locations, even moderate additional rain could lead to runoff and standing water within minutes.
What About the Midwest? A New Concern Is Developing
While all eyes are on Texas and Louisiana, the Upper Midwest is also entering the storm zone. The Weather Prediction Center has flagged southern Minnesota for a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall beginning Thursday evening into Friday morning.
Here, rainfall totals are expected to reach 25–50 mm (1–2 inches), with localized amounts possibly higher due to the interaction of a frontal boundary with a mid-level shortwave trough. While not as extreme as the Southern Plains situation, residents of Minneapolis, Rochester, and Mankato should stay alert for sudden downpours and ponding on roads.
Emergency Alerts Already in Effect
The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued Flood Advisories, Flash Flood Watches, and Hazardous Weather Outlooks for parts of:
South-Central Texas (including San Antonio and Austin)
East Texas (including Tyler, Lufkin, and College Station)
Southeastern Oklahoma
Western Louisiana
Local emergency management agencies are urging residents to avoid unnecessary travel during heavy rain, and to never drive through flooded roadways. It only takes six inches of fast-moving water to knock over an adult, and just 12 inches to sweep away a vehicle.
Travel Disruptions Expected
Travelers in the region should prepare for delays, particularly on major highways such as:
I-10, running from Houston to San Antonio
I-35, from Austin to Dallas
I-20, through eastern Texas and into Louisiana
Flooded roads, reduced visibility, and downed trees or power lines are all possibilities over the coming days. Air travel through major hubs like George Bush Intercontinental (IAH) and Dallas-Fort Worth International (DFW) may also experience delays or cancellations due to thunderstorms.
Power Outages and Infrastructure Risks
With multiple severe weather threats looming — from high winds to lightning — power outages are likely in hard-hit areas. Residents are encouraged to charge their mobile devices, check flashlights and batteries, and ensure they have an emergency supply kit that includes water, medications, non-perishable food, and first-aid materials.
In rural communities, flooding may impact wastewater systems, water quality, and transportation access, leading to longer-term disruption beyond the initial storm.
What You Should Do Now: Safety Tips
If you live in the affected areas, take these precautions immediately:
Monitor Local Alerts
Enable wireless emergency alerts on your phone. Tune in to local radio, TV, or NOAA Weather Radio.
Have a Plan
Know where you would go if an evacuation is ordered. If you live in a flood-prone zone, locate higher ground nearby.
Stay Off the Roads During Heavy Rain
Avoid driving during peak rainfall. “Turn around, don’t drown” is not just a slogan — it saves lives.
Prepare for Power Loss
Keep extra batteries, chargers, and essential medications ready.
Secure Outdoor Items
High winds may toss furniture, trash bins, and decorations. Bring them indoors if possible.
Looking Ahead: When Will It End?
Relief is on the horizon — but only just. By Friday afternoon, the upper-level pattern is expected to shift, and drier air may begin filtering into the region from the west. However, before that happens, there’s a long road ahead.
The next 48 hours could bring some of the heaviest rainfall this region has seen so far in 2025. Communities that have dealt with wet spring conditions are especially vulnerable. If storms train over the same regions multiple times, the flooding could be rapid, widespread, and destructive.
This is not your average summer thunderstorm forecast. The combination of saturated ground, multiple rounds of convection, and high CAPE values means the Southern Plains are facing a high-impact weather event. Rainfall totals will be high. The flooding risk is real. And severe weather threats add another layer of danger.
Stay informed. Stay safe. And remember — in these conditions, a moment’s delay in reacting can make all the difference.
Gleb Perov is the founder and chief meteorologist of POGODNIK, a leading weather forecasting service in Eastern Europe. With over 15 years of hands-on experience in meteorology and climate analysis, he has worked private weather services.
Gleb is the author of numerous scientific and analytical publications on climate, magnetic storms, and atmospheric processes. He regularly collaborates with major international agencies such as NOAA, ECMWF.
