Hurricane Melissa: From a disaster in Jamaica to a threat to the UK
Melissa emerged in the Atlantic basin in October 2025 and rapidly intensified into a major storm. According to multiple sources, including the National Hurricane Center, Melissa reached Category 5 strength with sustained winds well above 250 km/h and a very low central pressure. It made landfall in Jamaica as a catastrophic system and then struck eastern Cuba as a Category 3 storm. (AP News) Satellite imagery from the European Space Agency and Copernicus Sentinel-3 show Melissa’s well-defined eye and intense cloud structure. (copernicus.eu)
Melissa is being described as possibly the strongest Atlantic hurricane so far in 2025, and its rapid intensification is raising concern among climate scientists.
Where Melissa is headed & modelling insights
The spaghetti model outputs (including those visualised via DeepMind’s WeatherLab and other ensemble tools) suggest the remnants of Melissa will drift northeastward across the Atlantic toward the British Isles — particularly Ireland and possibly the UK. The map you shared indicates a projected track passing northwest of mainland Europe and near Ireland. According to the Irish meteorological service Met Éireann, Melissa’s remnants “could come fairly close” to Ireland this week. (The Irish Times)
Specifically, the chart you provided shows a forecast location on Monday 3 November 2025 at approx latitude 58.0° N, longitude -15.5° W (sea-level pressure 968 hPa, max sustained winds 87 knots) — indicating a strong post-tropical cyclone moving northeast across the Atlantic. From that it appears Melissa’s impact window for Ireland/UK would be around late this week (Thursday/Friday).
In short:
Over the Caribbean and Cuba: already significant landfall events.
Over the Atlantic: Melissa weakening, but still packed with energy and moisture.
Near Europe: The system likely reaches the vicinity of Ireland/UK by Friday or over the weekend, as a transitioning extra-tropical system. Given uncertainties, the exact timing or whether it will directly impact the UK remains somewhat speculative.
Potential impacts for Europe & UK/Ireland
While Melissa will have lost much of its tropical character by the time it reaches Europe, it may still trigger:
Strong wind gusts (especially coastal western Ireland/Scotland) and elevated seas.
Heavy rain / persistent frontal showers and localized flooding due to moisture uptake from the remnant.
Possible travel disruptions, structural risk in exposed locations (trees, power lines) especially if warnings are issued. Irish forecasters are already warning of heavy rain, localised flooding and winds up to ~130 km/h for Thursday across parts of Ireland. For the UK, forecasters suggest while a direct “hurricane-style” hit is unlikely, Melissa could feed into the general unsettled weather and amplify it.
Why Melissa became so strong
Meteorological analysis highlights several contributing factors: very warm sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean (above 30 °C), weak steering currents causing the storm to linger, and favourable upper-level conditions for intensification. (Wikipedia) The deeper warm water layers prevented cooling under the storm, helping sustain its intensity. Also, the climate-change signal is being cited: warmer oceans provide more fuel for these “rapid intensification” events.
What to watch in the coming days
Late week (Thursday/Friday): western Ireland likely sees increasing winds and rain as Melissa’s remnant arrives. Coastal warnings likely.
Weekend: the system may drift closer or influence the UK, especially north-western regions; expect unsettled weather and some gusty winds though likely not full hurricane strength.
Next week: After passage, a cooler air mass may follow and conditions should begin moderating.
Residents in coastal/ exposed areas of Ireland/UK should monitor official Met Office / Met Éireann updates and be ready for moderate storm conditions even if the system weakens.
Hurricane Melissa has already wrought major damage in the Caribbean and is now transitioning into a north-east bound remnant storm system. The spaghetti model track and pressure/wind estimates show it could reach near the UK/Ireland by late week, delivering strong winds, heavy rain and rough seas. While not expected to hit with full tropical force, the risk of disruption is real and warrants early preparation. Stay tuned to official weather services for warnings and updates.
Gleb Perov is the founder and chief meteorologist of POGODNIK, a leading weather forecasting service in Eastern Europe. With over 15 years of hands-on experience in meteorology and climate analysis, he has worked private weather services. Gleb is the author of numerous scientific and analytical publications on climate, magnetic storms, and atmospheric processes. He regularly collaborates with major international agencies such as NOAA, ECMWF.
