9 October 2025   By

Hurricane Jerry shifts course: Growing concern for Portugal and UK as storm eyes Europe

Hurricane Jerry

Tropical Jerry is rewriting the script of this Atlantic season, with its latest track veering northeast towards Europe in a move that’s raising eyebrows among forecasters. What began as a Caribbean-bound menace now poses a potential threat to Portugal’s shores and, less likely, the UK, as ensemble models paint a picture of a transatlantic survivor. With Jerry’s centre currently at 14.9°N, 55.4°W and winds at 65mph, the focus is sharpening on impacts beyond the tropics.

Storm’s power: Building to hurricane strength en route

Jerry is no lightweight. The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports sustained winds of 65mph and a central pressure of 999mb, with the system racing west-northwest at 21mph towards the northern Leeward Islands. Conditions remain favourable for intensification: sea surface temperatures above 28°C and low wind shear are fuelling rapid development. Forecasters expect Jerry to reach hurricane status — Category 1 with winds of 80–90mph — by Friday, potentially peaking at Category 2 before land interaction slows it down. “Gradual strengthening is the baseline,” states the NHC’s latest advisory. Outlets like CBS News highlight this as one of the season’s swiftest escalations, amid a 2025 forecast already tallying 10 named storms.

Model spaghetti: A northeast hook brings Europe into play

Ensemble forecasts — those spaghetti plots of competing model runs from , GFS and others — tell a compelling story of redirection. The initial path hugs the Leewards, passing 80–100 miles north of Antigua and Barbuda by Friday. But then comes the pivot: a crumbling subtropical ridge steers Jerry northeast, skirting Bermuda by mid-next week and arcing towards the Azores or western Portugal. The ECMWF’s high-resolution run, for instance, projects the centre at 38.2°N, 19.9°W by 17 October — roughly 500 miles west of Lisbon — with sea-level pressure dipping to 997hPa and sustained winds of 31 knots.

Uncertainty lingers, with 60% of ensemble members clustering in a 300-mile corridor, but the implications for Europe are clear. Portugal faces a 50–70% chance of brush-by effects: gusty winds, heavy rain and rough seas along the Algarve and Lisbon coasts. The UK? A more modest 20–30% risk, where Jerry’s extratropical remnants could deliver a wet, windy front to southern England and Wales by the third week. As The Guardian’s weather desk notes, “This northeast turn is gaining traction — a rare visitor that could disrupt autumn patterns.”

Agency outlooks: Consensus on the curve, caution on intensity

The big players are aligned on the trajectory. NHC’s Forecast #6 keeps the early focus on the islands but nods to the northward jog, with weakening post-passage. ECMWF and GFS push the envelope further, forecasting a sustained low-pressure system nearing Iberia by 15–17 October. Yale Climate Connections points to a Category 1 peak near the Leewards, followed by transition, while DeepMind ensembles give a 40% odds of remnants buffeting the Azores. “Track tweaks are minor, but the northeast bias is strengthening,” per NHC updates. FOX Weather warns: a single ridge shift could amplify the European angle.

Warnings: Caribbean on high alert, Europe braces for updates

Tropical storm warnings are live across the northern Leewards, US and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, courtesy of NHC: expect 4–8 inches of rain, winds to 60mph, and flash flooding risks. “Squalls incoming,” reads the service’s real-time posts. Europe remains in watchful mode — no formal alerts yet from Portugal’s IPMA or the UK’s Met Office — but yellow warnings for wind and rain could emerge by 14–15 October if models converge. “Remnants may whip up swells and gales,” cautions WESH Orlando, underscoring the transatlantic ripple.

Outlook: Islands first, then Europe’s turn to watch

By Saturday, Jerry should downgrade to a tropical storm after grazing the Leewards, but its northeast path could keep it organised enough to influence Portugal by mid-month, with echoes potentially reaching the UK. The season shows no signs of slowing; keep an eye on NHC and ECMWF bulletins. From a forecaster’s vantage, these systems are unpredictable roulette — one frontal nudge, and the curve tightens. Stay prepared: secure outdoor items, monitor coastal forecasts, and heed any escalation.

meteorologist

Gleb Perov

Синоптик at Погодник | Web Site

Gleb Perov is the founder and chief meteorologist of POGODNIK, a leading weather forecasting service in Eastern Europe. With over 15 years of hands-on experience in meteorology and climate analysis, he has worked private weather services.
Gleb is the author of numerous scientific and analytical publications on climate, magnetic storms, and atmospheric processes. He regularly collaborates with major international agencies such as NOAA, ECMWF.

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