Tropical Trouble Alert: Multiple New Depressions Jockey for Hurricane
As of July 26, 2025, the tropics are alive with activity. Forecasters are monitoring four systems currently classified as tropical depressions or storms: Invest 90L (Atlantic), Depression Co May, Tropical Storm Krosa, Depression Francisco, and Depression Wml. Here’s what you need to know — including which may evolve into hurricanes according to Windy.com model tracks, their current trajectories, and how 2025 stacks up against last year’s activity.
🌩️ Invest 90L (Atlantic)
Designated Invest 90L, this disturbance in the central subtropical Atlantic has shown signs of developing a closed circulation. Recent reports cite a 40% chance of forming a short-lived tropical storm or depression within two days and 40% over the next seven days. Windy’s hurricane layer spaghetti tracks project it moving northeastward, remaining over open Atlantic waters and unlikely to affect land.
Potential: Likely to become Tropical Storm Andrea briefly, but not expected to intensify into a hurricane due to increasing shear and cooling waters by mid‑week.
🌧️ Depression Co May
This nascent system is under close watch, though details remain limited. According to Windy.com’s hurricane-layer projection, Co May is currently in the eastern Atlantic or potentially in the Caribbean basin. Its development environment appears marginally favorable. Prediction: May organize into a tropical storm—but conditions likely prevent rapid intensification to hurricane stage. Should it track toward the Caribbean and encounter warm SSTs and low shear, further upgrade is possible.
🌪️ Tropical Storm Krosa
Already upgraded to Tropical Storm Krosa, this system is active in the western Pacific basin. Windy map data shows it moving north-northwest at moderate speed toward Taiwan or the Ryukyu Islands. Forecast: Krosa may strengthen into a Category 1 or 2 typhoon if vertical wind shear remains low and oceanic temperatures stay warm. Coastal communities along the projected track should monitor watches closely.
🌧️ Depression Francisco
Located in the western Pacific as well, Francisco was upgraded to a tropical storm around July 23 with 40 mph sustained winds. The forecast track shows it heading north-northwest. With sustained warm sea surface temperatures and moderate upper-level support, further intensification to a minimal typhoon cannot be ruled out. Potential land threat exists as it nears islands in the western Pacific.
🌧️ Depression Wml
The system designated Wml is currently a tropical depression in unknown basin—likely identified from satellite analysis but lacking upgraded status. Windy.com track data suggests it may remain weak or dissipate. Probability of intensification appears low unless environmental shear relaxes significantly. Unlikely to become a named storm in its current environment.
📊 Track Comparison and Forecast Outlook at a Glance
- Invest 90L: Atlantic → moderate chance to briefly become a named storm. Not expected to threaten land or reach hurricane status.
- Co May: potential tropical storm development; tropical storm stage possible, hurricane unlikely absent rapid intensification.
- Krosa: already a tropical storm in the western Pacific; poised to become a Category 1–2 typhoon.
- Francisco: developing in the western Pacific; may strengthen further toward minimal hurricane intensity.
- Wml: currently weak depression with minimal prospects for development.
🕰️ Last Year’s (2024) Depressions vs. This Year
Looking back to the 2024 Atlantic season provides context:
- In June 2024, Tropical Depression Three formed and quickly became Tropical Storm Chris, which made landfall in Veracruz within hours, bringing heavy rainfall and flooding.
- Francine, a Category 2 hurricane in September 2024, originated from a tropical wave in the Bay of Campeche and caused widespread flooding across the Gulf Coast of Mexico and USA (Вікіпедія).
- Multiple depressions last year either strengthened into tropical storms or hurricanes; overall, 2024 produced 18 depressions, 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes, matching nearly the same number of depressions to named events due to rapid intensification in favorable conditions.
Compared to last year, 2025’s early formation of multiple depressions—including 90L and Krosa—falls in line with forecasts of an above-average hurricane season. However, whether any intensify into hurricanes remains subject to environmental shear, ocean heat content, and steering patterns.
🧭 Final Thoughts
- Observational models on Windy show Krosa and Francisco with the highest potential to become hurricanes—typical of the western Pacific’s warm, low-shear environment.
- Invest 90L may briefly become a named storm but will likely fade in the open Atlantic.
- Co May and Wml are weaker disturbances with limited potential—though warm ocean waters late in the season make careful monitoring essential.
Last year showed that depressions can rapidly intensify in conducive environments. If sea surface temperatures remain elevated and wind shear lowers, some of these systems—especially in the Pacific—may surprise communities with unexpected strength.
Stay tuned to updates from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and consult Windy for the latest spaghetti tracks and intensity forecasts.
This article is based on data from NHC outlooks, Windy.com projections, and historical 2024 storm records.
Gleb Perov is the founder and chief meteorologist of POGODNIK, a leading weather forecasting service in Eastern Europe. With over 15 years of hands-on experience in meteorology and climate analysis, he has worked private weather services.
Gleb is the author of numerous scientific and analytical publications on climate, magnetic storms, and atmospheric processes. He regularly collaborates with major international agencies such as NOAA, ECMWF.
