Calm No More: Twin Tropical Systems Stir the Atlantic, While Ramil (Fengshen-25) Strengthens in the Pacific
Calm No More: Ramil (Fengshen-25) Intensifies as Tropical Activity Explodes Across the Oceans
The calm is over. Mid-September traditionally marks the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, a time when the world’s warmest waters feed a chain reaction of storms across the tropics. Yet for several unusual weeks, the Atlantic remained quiet — almost eerily still.
Now, that silence has been broken. Within days, meteorologists have observed a burst of tropical activity on both sides of the globe. In the Atlantic, multiple storm systems are spinning into formation, while across the Western Pacific, Tropical Cyclone Fengshen, locally known in the Philippines as Ramil, has intensified and is now threatening populated coastal areas.
The End of the Tropical Lull
For much of August and early September, the Atlantic basin was dominated by a strong Saharan Air Layer and vertical wind shear, both hostile to tropical development. Dry air masses from Africa extended far westward, suppressing convection even as sea surface temperatures hovered well above normal.
That balance has now shifted. The Madden–Julian Oscillation, a large-scale tropical wave of rising and sinking air, has entered a highly active phase over the central Atlantic. At the same time, a developing La Niña in the Pacific is helping to reduce upper-level wind shear. Together, these signals have opened the door for rapid tropical development.
Two disturbances, both located several hundred kilometers east of the Lesser Antilles, are showing signs of rotation. Models from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center and ECMWF indicate a high probability that both systems could evolve into tropical storms by the end of the week.
Meteorologists are also watching the rare possibility of a Fujiwhara effect, where two cyclones interact closely enough to begin rotating around one another. In such a scenario, the stronger system can draw in and absorb the weaker one, leading to unpredictable and sometimes explosive outcomes.
Ramil (Fengshen-25): A Developing Typhoon in the Western Pacific
While the Atlantic awakens, the Pacific has already erupted into activity. On September 25, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) officially named a new system east of Luzon as Tropical Storm Ramil, known internationally as Fengshen-25.
At midday, Ramil was centered roughly 280 kilometers east of Catanduanes Island, carrying sustained winds near 65 kilometers per hour and gusts up to 90. The storm was moving west-northwest at around 20 kilometers per hour, pushing heavy tropical rains toward the Bicol region and Eastern Visayas.
Satellite imagery reveals deep convective bands wrapping tightly around a developing low-level center — a clear sign of strengthening. Oceanic heat content in the Philippine Sea remains exceptionally high, providing ideal fuel for further intensification.
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Ramil is likely to strengthen into a Category 1 typhoon within the next 48 hours. Forecast tracks bring the center of the storm close to southern Luzon by late Friday, before emerging over the South China Sea during the weekend. From there, the system could continue toward southern China or northern Vietnam early next week, depending on steering currents from the subtropical ridge.
Local Impacts and Preparations
Rainbands from Ramil have already reached parts of the eastern Philippines. Local authorities have suspended ferry routes and closed several schools in low-lying areas. In Albay and Catanduanes, residents were advised to prepare for flash flooding and landslides, particularly in mountainous terrain where rainfall totals could exceed 150 millimeters by Saturday.
Gale-force winds are expected along the eastern seaboard, with coastal wave heights building to three or four meters. Fishermen have been urged to remain in port.
While the core of the storm remains offshore, the outer circulation is already producing rough seas and localized flooding across Samar and parts of Quezon Province. PAGASA has issued Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals 1 and 2 for the affected regions, warning that conditions will deteriorate further as the storm strengthens.
The Science Behind the Surge
The near-simultaneous activation of cyclones in multiple ocean basins is not a coincidence. It is part of a global-scale reorganization of atmospheric energy that often occurs during transitions between El Niño and La Niña phases.
With La Niña conditions emerging, vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and western Pacific has weakened, allowing storms to build vertically. Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures across the world’s tropical belts — particularly in the western Pacific warm pool — are at or near record highs.
“The tropics are essentially releasing the heat they’ve been storing all year,” explained Dr. Ernesto García of the World Meteorological Organization. “When all the key ingredients align — warm seas, low shear, and enhanced convection — we can see multiple storms forming almost simultaneously across the globe.”
This clustering of activity often leads to energy coupling between distant basins, meaning that the atmospheric circulation in one region can influence storm formation in another. In this case, strong upward motion over the Pacific may actually be helping to trigger convection in the Atlantic by shifting the global wave pattern eastward.
Global Outlook
For the Atlantic, meteorologists caution that the coming week could bring rapid changes. With ocean heat content at exceptional levels, any disturbance that organizes may intensify faster than models predict. The U.S. East Coast and Caribbean islands are not under immediate threat, but long-range guidance shows a complex pattern developing that could steer one or more systems westward next week.
In the Western Pacific, all attention remains on Ramil. If current forecasts hold, the storm could become the tenth named typhoon of the 2025 season by Saturday morning. Intensification is likely through the weekend, with landfall probabilities increasing for southern China or northern Vietnam by early October.
Residents in Luzon, Hainan, and the Gulf of Tonkin region should monitor updates closely, as even moderate tropical systems can cause severe flooding due to prolonged rainfall and storm surges.
The Week Ahead
The coming days will be a test for meteorologists and emergency managers alike. As the tropical belt enters its most volatile phase of the year, the contrast between weeks of calm and sudden activity underscores the unpredictability of large-scale ocean–atmosphere interactions.
For now, Ramil (Fengshen-25) is the most immediate concern in the Pacific, while the Atlantic prepares for its own awakening. The era of quiet seas has ended — and the world’s tropics are fully alive once again.
Gleb Perov is the founder and chief meteorologist of POGODNIK, a leading weather forecasting service in Eastern Europe. With over 15 years of hands-on experience in meteorology and climate analysis, he has worked private weather services.
Gleb is the author of numerous scientific and analytical publications on climate, magnetic storms, and atmospheric processes. He regularly collaborates with major international agencies such as NOAA, ECMWF.
