Madagascar on the Brink of Catastrophe: Tropical Storm Jude Threatens Thousands of Lives!
March 9, 2025 – A menacing tropical storm is barreling toward Madagascar, putting the lives of thousands at risk as it unleashes its fury on the region. Dubbed "Jude," this severe tropical storm is currently churning in the Mozambique Channel, with winds reaching speeds of up to 108 km/h (67 mph). As it closes in, residents are bracing for a potentially devastating impact. Here's what you need to know about this looming disaster.
Tropical Storm Jude on the Move
As of this morning, Tropical Storm Jude is positioned southwest of the Comoros Islands and northwest of Madagascar, with its eye set on the island nation's northern coast. Weather maps reveal intense rainfall and powerful winds already battering northern Mozambique and the Comoros, with red and orange zones signaling the storm's growing strength. Forecasters predict Jude will make landfall along Madagascar's northern coastline—likely near Antsiranana or Antalaha—within the next 24 to 36 hours, striking as early as the evening of March 10.
Tropical Storm Jude's projected path, marked by a purple dotted line, suggests a southeastward trajectory, with potential to wreak havoc across the island before weakening. Green and yellow lines on the maps indicate possible alternative routes, but the primary threat remains focused on Madagascar's vulnerable northern and northeastern regions.
What to Expect in the Coming Days Tropical Storm Jude
March 9–10, 2025: Jude is expected to intensify as it approaches, bringing winds of up to 100 km/h and torrential rains. Coastal areas could see storm surges as high as 2 meters, threatening low-lying communities.
March 11, 2025: Landfall is anticipated, unleashing flooding and landslides in Antsiranana, Antalaha, and surrounding areas. Winds may peak at 100 km/h before the storm begins to weaken over land.
March 12–13, 2025: As Jude moves inland, it will likely downgrade to a tropical depression, but heavy rains—potentially dumping 200–300 mm in 24 hours—will continue to pose a flood risk across central and southern Madagascar, including Antananarivo.
March 14–15, 2025: The storm's remnants will linger, bringing residual rains and localized flooding before dissipating entirely.
A Recipe for Disaster
The stakes are high for Madagascar, a nation all too familiar with the wrath of tropical cyclones. Northern and northeastern regions face the brunt of Jude's fury, with risks of destroyed infrastructure, submerged villages, and deadly landslides. The Comoros Islands and Mayotte are also in the storm's crosshairs, bracing for strong winds and rain that could disrupt power and transportation. Even northern Mozambique, including Pemba and Mocímboa da Praia, may see lingering effects, with potential for localized flooding.
Historical precedent heightens the alarm. The 2022 Cyclone Batsirai, with winds exceeding 230 km/h, left a trail of destruction across eastern Madagascar, killing dozens and displacing thousands. Jude may not reach that intensity, but its impact could still be catastrophic, especially for vulnerable communities with limited resources.
Residents in Madagascar's northern and northeastern regions are urged to evacuate to higher ground if possible and prepare for power outages. Emergency stockpiles of water, food, and batteries are critical, as is avoiding contaminated water sources to prevent disease outbreaks post-flood. The Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre in Réunion is providing real-time updates, and locals are encouraged to stay informed.
For the Comoros and Mozambique, preparedness is key—secure property and avoid travel as the storm's outer bands deliver their punch. International aid organizations, including Save the Children, are already mobilizing to support affected areas, echoing the global response to past cyclones in the region.
Tropical Storm Jude is a stark reminder of Madagascar's ongoing battle with climate-related disasters. With its economy heavily reliant on agriculture and fishing, the island nation faces severe economic setbacks from each cyclone. Relief efforts will be crucial, but prevention and resilience-building must follow to protect future generations.
As Jude approaches, the world watches with bated breath. Will Madagascar weather this storm, or will it join the list of cyclone-ravaged regions? Stay tuned for updates as this dramatic weather event unfolds.
Founder and chief forecaster of the Pogodnik service. He has many years of experience in the meteorological service. He is the author of numerous scientific publications and popular articles about the weather.
