What to Expect for Winter 2024-2025 Across North America and Europe
As the leaves start to change and the air turns crisp, many people's thoughts inevitably turn to the upcoming winter season. While it's still early, long-range forecasts are beginning to emerge that provide a glimpse of what we can expect when the cold winds blow in late 2024 and early 2025.
According to the latest analysis from Severe Weather Europe, the upcoming winter across large parts of North America and Europe could bring some significant deviations from average conditions. While details are still to be fine-tuned, the broad strokes of the forecast are starting to take shape.
United States and Canada
Across the United States and Canada, the winter of 2024-2025 is shaping up to be a tale of two halves. The early part of winter, from December through January, is expected to see below-average temperatures over a large swath of the central and eastern parts of the continent. This could translate to an earlier and potentially harsher onset of winter weather compared to normal.
The Upper Midwest, Great Lakes region, and parts of the Northeast US are currently projected to bear the brunt of the cold, with temperatures potentially running 2-4°C (4-7°F) below the long-term average. This heightens the risk of an early start to the snow season and a prolonged period of frigid conditions for these areas.
However, the second half of the winter from February through March is forecast to see a significant shift. Milder than average temperatures are expected to take over, with the core of the cold air retreating northward into Canada. This could lead to a relatively mild finish to the winter across the eastern two-thirds of the US, providing some relief after the chilly start.
The western US, meanwhile, is projected to have a winter that is closer to normal, with temperatures near the 30-year average. This region may see a mix of colder and milder spells, with precipitation patterns also remaining fairly typical.
Europe
Across the Atlantic, the winter weather outlook for Europe is also shaping up to be somewhat variable. The early part of the season, from December through January, is expected to feature below-average temperatures over much of central and eastern Europe.
The United Kingdom, Scandinavia, and areas stretching from Germany into Poland and the Baltic states are currently forecast to see temperatures 1-3°C (2-5°F) cooler than usual during this period. This heightens the risk of an early onset of winter weather, including the potential for heavy snowfall and icy conditions.
However, like in North America, the latter part of the winter from February to March is projected to see a shift toward milder weather over a large portion of the continent. Southern Europe, in particular, is expected to experience temperatures that are above the long-term average during this time.
The western regions of Europe, including France, the Iberian Peninsula, and parts of the UK, may see a winter that is closer to normal, with a mix of colder and milder spells. Precipitation patterns across the continent are also expected to be variable, with some areas potentially seeing higher than average snowfall while others remain drier.
It's important to note that long-range weather forecasts this far out come with inherent uncertainties, and the details of the upcoming winter may shift as we get closer to the season. However, the current indications suggest that North America and Europe could be in for a winter of contrasts, with an early chill giving way to a milder finish in many areas.
Individuals and communities would be wise to stay tuned to the latest weather updates and forecasts as we approach the winter of 2024-2025. Preparing for the possibility of an early onset of winter weather, as well as potential shifts in conditions later in the season, will be crucial for ensuring safety and comfort in the months ahead.
