Fading La Niña points to a wet Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies, a drier Southwest, and higher week-to-week variability across the rest of the U.S. as ENSO heads toward neutral.
La Niña is breaking down fast. ENSO-neutral is next—with a possible El Niño later in 2026—bringing sharper swings, late-season cold risks, and active storm tracks.
El Niño and La Niña are the two opposing phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, a coupled ocean–atmosphere system centered over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Every one to three years, sea-surface temperatures in this region swing between colder-than-normal conditions, known as La Niña, and warmer-than-normal conditions, known as El Niño.
