The Spring 2025 forecast for Europe reveals a season dominated by high-pressure systems, leading to generally milder conditions with normal precipitation patterns. Early predictions show low-pressure zones and the jet stream shifting further north, setting the stage for a stable spring season across much of the continent.
Meteorological Spring spans March, April, and May, serving as a transitional period from Winter to Summer. During this time, Europe experiences dynamic weather patterns influenced by oceanic events like La Niña and the gradual breakdown of the Polar Vortex.
The ongoing winter season has already demonstrated a strong high-pressure system centered over the North Atlantic, west of the UK and Ireland. This setup has created a northerly flow, resulting in colder-than-average conditions across western and west-central Europe, while eastern Europe has experienced above-average temperatures.
Temperature anomalies for December and early January highlight colder-than-usual weather in the UK, France, and Germany, contrasting with warmer conditions in the east.
Precipitation patterns reveal wetter conditions in northern Europe and drier weather across southern and central regions.
This winter's patterns have been shaped in part by the ongoing La Niña event, which continues to influence global weather dynamics. Colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have strengthened trade winds and affected atmospheric circulation.
Looking ahead to February, the ECMWF model predicts high-pressure dominance over central and west-central Europe. A low-pressure zone near the North Atlantic could edge closer to the UK, bringing wetter and stormier conditions to the region.
Temperatures: A warmer-than-average February is expected across most of Europe. However, under strong high-pressure systems, temperature inversions could lead to colder conditions in valleys and low-lying areas.
Precipitation: Drier weather is forecast for southern and western Europe, while northern Europe, including the UK and Ireland, may see increased rainfall.
The Polar Vortex, which remains unusually strong, is expected to influence February's weather. A robust Polar Vortex often leads to a stable jet stream, keeping cold air confined to the Arctic and allowing milder conditions to prevail in Europe.
Spring 2025 Early Forecast: Warmer Temperatures and Regional Precipitation Variations
Both the ECMWF and UKMO models predict warmer-than-average temperatures across Europe during Spring 2025.
Eastern and East-Central Europe: The warmest anomalies are expected here, with mild conditions dominating the season.
Western Europe: Occasional Atlantic fronts may bring cooler spells, but overall, the region will see mild weather.
Precipitation patterns show regional variations:
Northern and Central Europe: Above-average rainfall is forecast, driven by low-pressure systems in the North Atlantic.
Southern Europe: Drier-than-average conditions are likely due to the influence of high-pressure systems.
While snowfall events are still possible in early Spring, particularly in March, the overall snowfall forecast suggests below-average accumulations across most of Europe. Warmer temperatures and a dominant westerly flow will limit significant snow events.
Polar Vortex and Its Role in Spring Weather
The Polar Vortex is expected to remain stronger than normal through late Winter and into Spring, contributing to a westerly-dominant flow. This pattern supports milder conditions for Europe, particularly in central and eastern regions, while stormier weather may affect the northern and northwestern parts of the continent.
A weaker Polar Vortex, if it occurs later in the season, could disrupt the jet stream and allow colder air to spill into mid-latitude regions, potentially altering the spring weather dynamics.
Temperatures: Warmer-than-average conditions are expected across much of Europe, with the strongest anomalies in eastern regions.
Precipitation: Normal to wetter-than-normal conditions in northern and central Europe; drier in the south.
Snowfall: Below-average snowfall for most of the continent, with limited potential for significant snow events.
Polar Vortex Influence: A strong Polar Vortex supports milder conditions and stable weather patterns for much of the season.
Spring 2025 is shaping up to be a relatively mild and stable season for Europe, with regional variations in precipitation and occasional Atlantic weather systems. While the Polar Vortex and La Niña will continue to influence weather dynamics, the current forecast suggests a season of moderation rather than extremes.
