{"id":251414,"date":"2026-01-01T13:58:13","date_gmt":"2026-01-01T10:58:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/?p=251414"},"modified":"2026-01-01T13:58:13","modified_gmt":"2026-01-01T10:58:13","slug":"geomagnetic-storm-m7-1-solar-flare","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/en\/news\/geomagnetic-storm-m7-1-solar-flare","title":{"rendered":"Geomagnetic Storm &#8211; M7.1 solar flare"},"content":{"rendered":"<article class=\"post-article\">\n<header class=\"post-header\">\n<h1>Long-duration M7.1 solar flare on December 31: NOAA reports R2 radio blackout, CME may brush Earth<\/h1>\n<p class=\"lead\">On December 31, 2025, a long-duration M7.1-class <a href=\"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/en\/space-weather-geomagnetic-forecast\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"135\" title=\"Geomagnetic Forecast\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">solar flare<\/a> erupted from active region AR 4324. NOAA\/SWPC classified the event as an R2 (Moderate) radio blackout on the dayside of Earth. Preliminary data indicate a coronal mass ejection (CME) accompanied the flare; the probability of geomagnetic disturbances in early January is currently assessed at G1\u2013G2.<\/p>\n<div class=\"post-meta\"><time datetime=\"2026-01-01\">Updated: January 1, 2026<\/time><\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"tldr-block\">\n<p><strong>Briefly:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Flare peak: 13:51 UTC (15:51 Kyiv) on 31 Dec 2025; duration: 13:12\u201314:11 UTC.<\/li>\n<li>NOAA\/SWPC: R2 (Moderate) radio blackout during the flare.<\/li>\n<li>Evidence of CME (type II\/IV radio emissions; preliminary shock speed ~893 km\/s); trajectory and geoeffectiveness under analysis.<\/li>\n<li>NOAA issued a G1\u2013G2 watch for January 1\u20133, 2026; short-lived aurora bursts possible at higher latitudes.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-207464\" src=\"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/quality=80,format=auto,onerror=redirect,metadata=none\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Snapshot.webp\" alt=\"solar flare\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1080\" srcset=\"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/quality=80,format=auto,onerror=redirect,metadata=none\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Snapshot.webp 1920w, https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/width=300,height=169,fit=crop,quality=80,format=auto,onerror=redirect,metadata=none\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Snapshot.webp 300w, https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/width=600,height=338,fit=crop,quality=80,format=auto,onerror=redirect,metadata=none\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Snapshot.webp 600w, https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/width=768,height=432,fit=crop,quality=80,format=auto,onerror=redirect,metadata=none\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Snapshot.webp 768w, https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/width=1536,height=864,fit=crop,quality=80,format=auto,onerror=redirect,metadata=none\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Snapshot.webp 1536w, https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/width=150,height=84,fit=crop,quality=80,format=auto,onerror=redirect,metadata=none\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Snapshot.webp 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>What happened: M7.1 flare from AR 4324<\/h2>\n<p>According to The Watchers, the flare reached <strong>M7.1<\/strong> at <strong>13:51 UTC<\/strong> on December 31, 2025, lasting nearly an hour: start 13:12 UTC, end 14:11 UTC. The source was active region <strong>AR 4324<\/strong> with a \u201cbeta\u2013gamma\u201d magnetic configuration, which raises the likelihood of additional strong flares.<\/p>\n<p>The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) reported an accompanying <strong>R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout<\/strong>\u2014a temporary degradation of HF communications on the sunlit side of Earth at peak time.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-251406\" src=\"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/quality=80,format=auto,onerror=redirect,metadata=none\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/generating_2026010112_0605.webp\" alt=\"\" width=\"1080\" height=\"1440\" srcset=\"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/quality=80,format=auto,onerror=redirect,metadata=none\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/generating_2026010112_0605.webp 1080w, https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/width=225,height=300,fit=crop,quality=80,format=auto,onerror=redirect,metadata=none\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/generating_2026010112_0605.webp 225w, https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/width=450,height=600,fit=crop,quality=80,format=auto,onerror=redirect,metadata=none\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/generating_2026010112_0605.webp 450w, https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/width=768,height=1024,fit=crop,quality=80,format=auto,onerror=redirect,metadata=none\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/generating_2026010112_0605.webp 768w, https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/width=640,height=853,fit=crop,quality=80,format=auto,onerror=redirect,metadata=none\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/generating_2026010112_0605.webp 640w, https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/width=150,height=200,fit=crop,quality=80,format=auto,onerror=redirect,metadata=none\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/generating_2026010112_0605.webp 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1080px) 100vw, 1080px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Why it matters: radio interference and communications impact<\/h2>\n<p>M-class flares emit powerful bursts of X-ray and ultraviolet radiation. The primary immediate effect is on the ionosphere: minutes after the flare, radio-wave propagation and navigation accuracy can degrade.<\/p>\n<h3>Systems most likely to experience R2 impacts<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>HF radio<\/strong> (including aviation and maritime bands) on the dayside: short dropouts and fades.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Navigation<\/strong> (GPS\/GNSS): localized reductions in signal quality and positioning accuracy from ionospheric disturbance.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Satellite links and sensitive RF systems<\/strong>: transient increases in radio noise.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Was there a CME and when could geomagnetic storms occur?<\/h2>\n<p>The Watchers notes concurrent <strong>type II and IV radio emissions<\/strong> and a 10-cm radio burst\u2014typical CME signatures. The report cites a type-II shock speed near <strong>~893 km\/s<\/strong> and suggests the source geometry could favor an Earth-directed component; final CME trajectory analysis was ongoing.<\/p>\n<p>SpaceWeatherLive also indicates a CME on coronagraph imagery with a <strong>weak Earth-directed component<\/strong> and a possible <strong>glancing impact late on January 2<\/strong>; current expectations are up to <strong>G1<\/strong>, though the forecast may be refined as new data arrive.<\/p>\n<p>Separately, NOAA\/SWPC <strong>issued a G1\u2013G2 watch for January 1\u20133, 2026<\/strong>, noting anticipated CME influence and elevated geomagnetic activity into early 2026.<\/p>\n<h3>What this means for Ukraine and Europe<\/h3>\n<p>At mid-latitudes the key risk is episodic activity rather than a guaranteed storm. If the CME proves more geoeffective, aurora chances rise first for higher latitudes (Scandinavia, northern Canada\/USA). For Ukraine and Central Europe, noticeable aurora potential usually increases with <strong>G2\u2013G3<\/strong> levels and a sustained southward interplanetary magnetic field (negative Bz), so outcomes depend on solar-wind parameters at impact.<\/p>\n<h2>How to monitor the situation<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>NOAA\/SWPC<\/strong> posts real-time alerts\/watches\/warnings and updates storm probabilities.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Solar-wind dashboards<\/strong> (speed, Bt\/Bz) help assess whether the CME will couple strongly with Earth\u2019s magnetosphere.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Pogodnik<\/strong>: watch for refined geomagnetic-storm updates in the final 12\u201324 hours before any CME arrival.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Sources<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.swpc.noaa.gov\/news\/g1-g2-watches-issued-jan-01-03-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">NOAA\/SWPC: G1\u2013G2 watches issued for Jan 01\u201303, 2026<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.spaceweatherlive.com\/en\/news\/view\/598\/20251231-happy-new-year-celebrate-with-an-m7-1-solar-flare.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">SpaceWeatherLive: M7.1 flare and CME update<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Glossary<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>M-class<\/strong> \u2014 flare magnitude category based on soft X-rays; M7.1 is a strong M-class flare.<\/li>\n<li><strong>AR (Active Region)<\/strong> \u2014 a magnetically complex sunspot region capable of flares.<\/li>\n<li><strong>R2 (Radio Blackout)<\/strong> \u2014 NOAA\u2019s \u201cModerate\u201d HF radio degradation on the dayside.<\/li>\n<li><strong>CME<\/strong> \u2014 coronal mass ejection; a plasma cloud that can trigger geomagnetic storms if it couples with Earth\u2019s magnetosphere.<\/li>\n<li><strong>G1\u2013G2<\/strong> \u2014 NOAA geomagnetic storm levels (minor to moderate).<\/li>\n<li><strong>Bz<\/strong> \u2014 north\u2013south component of the interplanetary magnetic field; sustained southward (negative) Bz favors stronger storms.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Q&amp;A<\/h2>\n<h3>Can an M7.1 flare by itself cause a geomagnetic storm?<\/h3>\n<p>No. Storms are driven by a CME (or enhanced solar-wind stream), not by the flare\u2019s photons. The flare is a \u201cmarker\u201d that a CME may have been launched.<\/p>\n<h3>Why does radio interference happen immediately but storms arrive later?<\/h3>\n<p>Radio\/ionospheric effects are caused by flare radiation and occur within minutes. A CME typically takes 1\u20133 days to reach Earth, so geomagnetic impacts lag behind.<\/p>\n<h3>When will the forecast be most accurate?<\/h3>\n<p>Confidence improves once the CME is well resolved on coronagraphs and solar-wind parameters begin shifting upstream\u2014typically within 24 hours of impact; <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/play.google.com\/store\/apps\/details?id=com.bitltd.pogodnik\">see the Pogodnik app for geomagnetic-storm alerts<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Preliminary data indicate a coronal mass ejection (CME) accompanied the flare; the probability of geomagnetic disturbances in early January is currently assessed at G1\u2013G2.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":207465,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"class_list":["post-251414","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-geomagnetic-storm","tag-noaa-3-3","tag-solar-flares","tag-storm-en"],"acf":[],"wpml_data":{"original_post_id":251414,"trid":"4893052","lang":"en","source_lang":null},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/251414","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=251414"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/251414\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/207465"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=251414"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=251414"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}