{"id":249339,"date":"2025-09-21T16:03:08","date_gmt":"2025-09-21T13:03:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/?p=249339"},"modified":"2025-09-21T16:03:08","modified_gmt":"2025-09-21T13:03:08","slug":"hurricane-gabrielle-spaghetti-models-290925","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/en\/news\/hurricane-gabrielle-spaghetti-models-290925","title":{"rendered":"Hurricane Gabrielle spaghetti models &#8211; Heading Toward Europe"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1>Hurricane Gabrielle: Heading Toward Europe \u2014 What Portugal and Ireland Can Expect on September 29<\/h1>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-249333\" src=\"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/quality=80,format=auto,onerror=redirect,metadata=none\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/gabbrielle.webp\" alt=\"Hurricane Gabrielle spaghetti models\" width=\"1250\" height=\"838\" srcset=\"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/quality=80,format=auto,onerror=redirect,metadata=none\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/gabbrielle.webp 1250w, https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/width=300,height=201,fit=crop,quality=80,format=auto,onerror=redirect,metadata=none\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/gabbrielle.webp 300w, https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/width=600,height=402,fit=crop,quality=80,format=auto,onerror=redirect,metadata=none\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/gabbrielle.webp 600w, https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/width=768,height=515,fit=crop,quality=80,format=auto,onerror=redirect,metadata=none\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/gabbrielle.webp 768w, https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/cdn-cgi\/image\/width=150,height=101,fit=crop,quality=80,format=auto,onerror=redirect,metadata=none\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/gabbrielle.webp 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1250px) 100vw, 1250px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>From the Atlantic to Europe: the storm\u2019s journey<\/h2>\n<p>Tropical Storm <strong>Gabrielle<\/strong>, born in the Atlantic, is expected to strengthen into a <strong>Category 2 hurricane<\/strong> on the Saffir\u2013Simpson scale within the next 24 hours. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and several model runs, by <strong>21 September<\/strong> maximum sustained winds may reach <strong>165 km\/h (105 mph)<\/strong>, with central pressure dropping to 975\u2013980 hPa.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-media-max-width=\"560\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Hurricane Gabrielle: Heading Toward Europe \u2014 What Portugal and Ireland Can Expect on September 29<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Hurricanes?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Hurricanes<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/HurricaneGabrielle?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#HurricaneGabrielle<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Europe?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Europe<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/m1gtSUExVJ\">pic.twitter.com\/m1gtSUExVJ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 City Weather (@ukcityweather) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ukcityweather\/status\/1969747072283718046?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 21, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>At present, Gabrielle remains offshore, well east of Bermuda, but the system has already triggered <strong>dangerous surf and rip currents<\/strong> along the island.<\/p>\n<p>Forecast guidance shows that by early next week Gabrielle will curve north of Bermuda before being caught in the mid-latitude westerlies of the North Atlantic, steering it toward <strong>Europe<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h2>Spaghetti plots: where will Gabrielle go?<\/h2>\n<p>Ensemble \u201cspaghetti\u201d forecasts agree on a <strong>northeastward turn toward Europe<\/strong>, though the precise landfall track remains uncertain. The leading scenarios point toward <strong>Portugal and Ireland between September 28\u201330<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Portugal:<\/strong> First impacts are expected as early as the evening of <strong>28 September<\/strong>, with rising southwesterly winds and dangerous surf.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ireland:<\/strong> The system, or its powerful frontal zone, is projected to reach the island by <strong>29 September<\/strong>, bringing severe conditions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Some models (ECMWF, GEFS) still allow for a track farther north, toward Iceland. Even in that case, however, southern bands of wind and moisture would likely brush <strong>Ireland and western <a href=\"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/en\/weather-in-world\/77-united-kingdom\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"123\" title=\"Weather in UK\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">UK<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h2>Transition: from tropical hurricane to European windstorm<\/h2>\n<p>By the time Gabrielle approaches Europe, it will likely undergo <strong>extratropical transition<\/strong>. This process means the storm won\u2019t simply weaken \u2014 it will <strong>expand and restructure<\/strong>, producing hazards more typical of Atlantic winter storms:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>A much wider wind field;<\/li>\n<li>Sustained gale- to storm-force winds (up to <strong>120\u2013130 km\/h in Ireland<\/strong>, <strong>90\u2013100 km\/h in northern Portugal<\/strong>);<\/li>\n<li>Heavy rainfall, especially in <strong>northern Portugal and Galicia (Spain)<\/strong>;<\/li>\n<li>Large ocean swells and storm surge along exposed coasts.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In other words, Gabrielle may lose its tropical core but will continue to pack <strong>destructive energy<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h2>Portugal: wind and flooding rains<\/h2>\n<p>The highest risk for Portugal comes during the night of <strong>28\u201329 September<\/strong>. Forecasts indicate:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Wind gusts <strong>80\u2013100 km\/h<\/strong>, locally up to <strong>110 km\/h<\/strong> along the coast;<\/li>\n<li>Atlantic waves reaching <strong>6\u20138 m<\/strong>;<\/li>\n<li>Torrential rain in the north, with a risk of flash floods and landslides.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Southern regions such as the Algarve will feel weaker impacts, mostly showers and breezy conditions.<\/p>\n<h2>Ireland: a storm on Michaelmas Day<\/h2>\n<p>By <strong>29 September (Michaelmas Day)<\/strong>, Ireland is expected to face the brunt of Gabrielle\u2019s extratropical phase:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Hurricane-force gusts <strong>120\u2013130 km\/h<\/strong> along western coasts (Connacht, Munster);<\/li>\n<li>Rainfall totals <strong>50\u201380 mm in 24 hours<\/strong>;<\/li>\n<li>Storm surge and breakers <strong>7\u20139 m<\/strong> high.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Central and eastern Ireland will see less rain but still face widespread gale-force winds. Mountainous regions (Mourne, Wicklow) could experience severe downpours and localized flooding.<\/p>\n<h2>Risks and warnings<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Marine hazards:<\/strong> Navigation in the eastern Atlantic will be extremely dangerous; ships should avoid waters west of Iberia and Ireland between <strong>28\u201330 September<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Power grid:<\/strong> High probability of outages in Ireland and northern Portugal from downed trees and power lines.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Air travel:<\/strong> Flight delays and cancellations likely at <strong>Lisbon, Porto, Dublin, and Cork airports<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Residents:<\/strong> Coastal communities should prepare for <strong>storm surge, flooding rains, and damaging winds<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Final outlook<\/h2>\n<p>Hurricane <strong>Gabrielle<\/strong> is shaping up to be one of the rare Atlantic tropical cyclones to <strong>reach Europe with hurricane strength remnants<\/strong>. By <strong>29 September 2025<\/strong>, the storm \u2014 in its extratropical phase \u2014 will bring <strong>winds of 120\u2013130 km\/h, torrential rains, and storm surges<\/strong> to <strong>Portugal and Ireland<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>The main threats include <strong>coastal flooding, flash floods, and widespread wind damage<\/strong>, marking Gabrielle as potentially the most powerful storm event of the autumn for Atlantic Europe.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tropical Storm Gabrielle, born in the Atlantic, is expected to strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir\u2013Simpson scale within the next 24 hours. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and several model runs, by 21 September maximum sustained winds may reach 165 km\/h (105 mph), with central pressure dropping to 975\u2013980 hPa.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":249334,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,6211,6649],"class_list":["post-249339","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-ukweather","category-nature-disasters","tag-ecmwf","tag-hurricane","tag-storm-surges","tag-tropical-cyclone-en","tag-tropical-storm"],"acf":[],"wpml_data":{"original_post_id":249339,"trid":"3888923","lang":"en","source_lang":null},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/249339","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=249339"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/249339\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/249334"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=249339"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pogodnik.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=249339"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}